Adam Pilarski

Archive for the ‘Valuations’ Category

Adam Pilarski

Opinion: There’s An Aircraft Order Bubble—And It Is About To Burst

End of the Party  There are two independent elements to forecasting: getting the prediction right and determining the time when the prediction will materialize. These two elements are quite different. For instance, we all know that we will die someday, but having an indication as to the exact timing could be very significant. Getting the […]

Major Industry Events A380 Production & 737 MAX

A couple of major industry events are getting a lot of attention.  In February, Airbus announced the end of A380 production after the remaining orders are delivered over the next two years.  This announcement follows the cancellation of orders by the largest operator, Emirates.  Recently, Lufthansa reported that they are going to trade 6 of […]

At Least it is Steady—Embraer’s Large RJ Deliveries

Embraer’s Large RJ Deliveries   Embraer have delivered almost 1,500 large RJs since deliveries first began in 2004 But, deliveries have been flat since 2010 averaging about 100 deliveries for the nine-year period between 2010 and 2018 90 deliveries in 2018 is about 60% of their top delivery year in 2008 This performance points to […]

Big Aircraft, Big Decline – Widebody Aircraft in Passenger Service 1999-2018

Widebody Aircraft in Passenger Service 1999-2018 Widebody passenger aircraft have been seeing a deployment shift over the long term Very large aircraft like the 747 (all series) and the A380-800 has seen a consistent decline in fleet development over the last 20-years From 600+ aircraft in 1999 to less than 400 (on a combined basis) […]

A380-800

A380-800 Value Implications

With the announcement of the Airbus A380-800 production shutdown in 2021, here are some thoughts on the aircraft from a value perspective. The shutdown announcement is largely based on the weaknesses of the A380 that have been apparent for several years: High transition cost between operators Limited in-service fleet after ten years of production Small […]

Valuing Aircraft with a Lease Attached An Appraiser’s Perspective

Executive Summary Operating leases of commercial aircraft make up approximately 40% of the world’s fleet. The need for Lease-Encumbered Valuations is increasing as more and more aircraft are sold or financed with leases attached. Because a Lease-Encumbered Value (“LEV”) opinion requires access to lease contract details, providing this type of value opinion will only be […]

AVITAS Online introduces Lease-Encumbered Values

The need for Lease-Encumbered Values is increasing as more and more aircraft are sold or financed with leases attached. AVITAS Online now gives you the ability to obtain Lease-Encumbered Values for a single or all of your assets. Watch the video below to see how easy and quickly you can obtain Lease-Encumbered values for your […]