Archive for the ‘Valuations’ Category

Where are We in the Cycle?

Where are We in the Cycle? 10- Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury The business cycle is difficult to predict as there are many moving parts But, a pretty good indicator is available by monitoring 10-year treasury yields minus 2-year treasuries This difference has predicted at least five recessions over the last 40 years When 10-year […]

Passenger Turboprop Aircraft by World Region – In Service and On Order

Turboprop Migration While passenger turboprop aircraft fleets are smaller when compared to jet aircraft, there are still many in service Asia/Pacific region accounts for most followed by North America and Europe But, a migration is underway; the Asia/Pacific region has about 30% of the in-service passenger turboprops in service but near 70% of the total […]

Who Needs the Middle of the Market Aircraft More?

Boeing formerly dominated the MoM sector with 757s and 767s; in 1998 Boeing had 75% of this market Today, Airbus now has a 60% to 40% advantage over Boeing thanks to A321/A330-200,300s Since 2010, Airbus has grown its MoM aircraft from 1,400 in-service airplanes to about 2,900 while Boeing went from 1,550 to 2,000 Airbus […]

Where Lease Rates are Going in a Higher Interest Rate Environment

  Interest Rates and Lease Rentals per month correlate strongly against one another and are positive in orientation (as interest rates increase, lease rentals also increase) Using A320-200 new build aircraft (years 1998 to 2017), adjusted monthly lease rates using CPI; thus adjustment is in 2017 US dollars Overlaid lease rates with one-year Libor rates […]

Delta Airlines Fleet changes – 2010 vs. 2016

Delta Air Lines has 20 different aircraft fleet types and models today; largely a result of its merger with Northwest Airlines and other fleet acquisitions. The narrowbody aircraft space for Delta has grown at a considerable rate vs. its widebody fleet. Delta’s narrowbody fleet has grown by 101 units over the last six years (2010 […]

Why the big increase in mid-size and large narrowbody aircraft?

  In service small narrowbody aircraft have trended flat over the long term But, mid size narrowbodies such as the A320 and the 737-800 have been popular and the trend has accelerated in recent years Large narrowbodies such as the Airbus A321 are now increasing as well Double digit YoY percent changes in oil price […]

Narrowbody Aircraft Fleet Development in Europe

Aircraft fleet development for European domiciled airlines has been in the midst of a definitive aircraft size migration which in part is driving similar worldwide trends Aircraft between 136-175 seats such as the A320 and the 737-800 has grown consistently and appears unconstrained Year over year fleet growth for 136-175 seat types has averaged 9% […]