Adam Pilarski

Archive for the ‘@Gurudude’ Category

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – Diverging path of passenger and cargo traffic growth rates

Cargo has become a finicky child who is hard to predict, writes Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS. Click here to download the PDF version of Diverging path of passenger and cargo traffic growth rates   As an old practitioner of traffic forecasting, I knew the simple trick of coming up with cargo traffic forecasts: […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – Fake news or MDC as source of Boeing’s problems

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, writes a highly personalised defence of Boeing in an age of pseudo-facts. Click here to download the PDF version of Fake news or MDC as source of Boeing’s problems   The tragic events surrounding the 737 Max temporary grounding led to a plethora of ridiculous speculations and falsehoods. Let […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – How demography will transform aviation: a very long-term view

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, writes that China’s ageing population is already having an impact on growth, and it will get worse. Click here to download the PDF version of How demography will transform aviation: a very long-term view   Forecasting in our industry deals with very short-term predictions. The aviation business is extremely […]

Adam Pilarski

Opinion: There’s An Aircraft Order Bubble—And It Is About To Burst

End of the Party  There are two independent elements to forecasting: getting the prediction right and determining the time when the prediction will materialize. These two elements are quite different. For instance, we all know that we will die someday, but having an indication as to the exact timing could be very significant. Getting the […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – How three-times ‘no’ will result in ‘yes’

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, believes Boeing’s New Mid-Market Aircraft will go ahead despite good reasons for the programme to be shelved. Click here to download the PDF version of Boeing’s New Mid-Market Aircraft will go ahead despite good reasons for the programme to be shelved The biggest decision facing aircraft manufacturers is the […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – Are we more accurate in predicting short or long-term future?

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, explains why it is easier to predict long-term growth in the Asian market than passenger growth at St Louis Lambert airport. Click here to download the PDF version of Are we more accurate in predicting short or long-term future? A puzzling question is the relationship of the time horizon […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – Speed and the question of first-class travel

In the second part of two columns, Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, argues that it will only be a matter of time before passengers are paying more to travel by supersonic aircraft. Click here to download the PDF version of  Speed and the question of first-class travel In last month’s column, I wrote about […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – Speed, the final frontier and implications for the industry

In the first part of two articles, Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, Inc., explains why airlines’ quest for speed will come back as a major technological drive in the years to come. Click here to download the PDF version of  Speed, the final frontier and implications for the industry Humans have dreamt forever of being […]

Adam Pilarski

Mystery of my oil price forecast

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, looks forward to 16 October to show that his long-term – or is it short-term? – forecast was correct. Mystery of my oil price forecast – Download the PDF version here The date 16 October 2018 is approaching and I get a lot of messages reminding me of a […]

Adam Pilarski

Disruptive events do not change long-term fundamental relationships

Events such as 9/11 and a potential US-Russia war should not negatively impact aviation in the long term, because it is an industry built on longer-term trends and relationships, writes Adam Pilarksi, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS. The world is on edge right now. There is the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East focused […]