Adam Pilarski

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Adam Pilarski

Mystery of my oil price forecast

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, looks forward to 16 October to show that his long-term – or is it short-term? – forecast was correct. Mystery of my oil price forecast – Download the PDF version here The date 16 October 2018 is approaching and I get a lot of messages reminding me of a […]

Who Needs the Middle of the Market Aircraft More?

Boeing formerly dominated the MoM sector with 757s and 767s; in 1998 Boeing had 75% of this market Today, Airbus now has a 60% to 40% advantage over Boeing thanks to A321/A330-200,300s Since 2010, Airbus has grown its MoM aircraft from 1,400 in-service airplanes to about 2,900 while Boeing went from 1,550 to 2,000 Airbus […]

Where Lease Rates are Going in a Higher Interest Rate Environment

  Interest Rates and Lease Rentals per month correlate strongly against one another and are positive in orientation (as interest rates increase, lease rentals also increase) Using A320-200 new build aircraft (years 1998 to 2017), adjusted monthly lease rates using CPI; thus adjustment is in 2017 US dollars Overlaid lease rates with one-year Libor rates […]

Adam Pilarski

Disruptive events do not change long-term fundamental relationships

Events such as 9/11 and a potential US-Russia war should not negatively impact aviation in the long term, because it is an industry built on longer-term trends and relationships, writes Adam Pilarksi, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS. The world is on edge right now. There is the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East focused […]

Adam Pilarski

Opinion: Where is the Aircraft Market Headed? Look to China

It is a good time to be in the airplane business. Backlogs are at historical highs and airlines are making record profits. CEOs such as Boeing’s Dennis Muilenburg and American Airlines’ Doug Parker say we are no longer in a cyclical industry. Boeing’s share price more than doubled last year, and the super-long waiting periods for new […]

Adam Pilarski

The Underappreciated Value of Experience and its Relevance Today

With a downturn on the horizon, a surfeit of new market players that have not been through one before is disconcerting, writes Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS Download the PDF Version – The underappreciated value of experience and its relevance today December 26 was the anniversary of Chairman Mao’s birth. The Chinese government is […]

Adam Pilarski

A provocative view of globalisation future

Airlines and original equipment manufacturers are showing signs of wanting to restrict competition, writes Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS Download the PDF Version – A Provocative View of Globalisation’s Future The past few decades are the age of globalisation. The world is getting smaller and much more interconnected. Trade has been growing in line […]

Percentage of World Widebody Aircraft Backlog for Middle Eastern Airlines

What Goes Up Must Come Down Middle East order backlog for widebody aircraft now totals about 700 aircraft. The order backlog in this region has risen rapidly from ten years ago and now represents about 30% of worldwide widebody aircraft orders. Of significance is the relationship between oil price and orders for widebody airplanes. As […]

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