Adam Pilarski

Archive for the ‘Consulting’ Category

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – How demography will transform aviation: a very long-term view

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, writes that China’s ageing population is already having an impact on growth, and it will get worse. Click here to download the PDF version of How demography will transform aviation: a very long-term view   Forecasting in our industry deals with very short-term predictions. The aviation business is extremely […]

Adam Pilarski

Opinion: There’s An Aircraft Order Bubble—And It Is About To Burst

End of the Party  There are two independent elements to forecasting: getting the prediction right and determining the time when the prediction will materialize. These two elements are quite different. For instance, we all know that we will die someday, but having an indication as to the exact timing could be very significant. Getting the […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – How three-times ‘no’ will result in ‘yes’

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, believes Boeing’s New Mid-Market Aircraft will go ahead despite good reasons for the programme to be shelved. Click here to download the PDF version of Boeing’s New Mid-Market Aircraft will go ahead despite good reasons for the programme to be shelved The biggest decision facing aircraft manufacturers is the […]

Adam Pilarski

PILARSKI Says – Are we more accurate in predicting short or long-term future?

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, explains why it is easier to predict long-term growth in the Asian market than passenger growth at St Louis Lambert airport. Click here to download the PDF version of Are we more accurate in predicting short or long-term future? A puzzling question is the relationship of the time horizon […]

At Least it is Steady—Embraer’s Large RJ Deliveries

Embraer’s Large RJ Deliveries   Embraer have delivered almost 1,500 large RJs since deliveries first began in 2004 But, deliveries have been flat since 2010 averaging about 100 deliveries for the nine-year period between 2010 and 2018 90 deliveries in 2018 is about 60% of their top delivery year in 2008 This performance points to […]

Big Aircraft, Big Decline – Widebody Aircraft in Passenger Service 1999-2018

Widebody Aircraft in Passenger Service 1999-2018 Widebody passenger aircraft have been seeing a deployment shift over the long term Very large aircraft like the 747 (all series) and the A380-800 has seen a consistent decline in fleet development over the last 20-years From 600+ aircraft in 1999 to less than 400 (on a combined basis) […]

A380-800

A380-800 Value Implications

With the announcement of the Airbus A380-800 production shutdown in 2021, here are some thoughts on the aircraft from a value perspective. The shutdown announcement is largely based on the weaknesses of the A380 that have been apparent for several years: High transition cost between operators Limited in-service fleet after ten years of production Small […]

Valuing Aircraft with a Lease Attached An Appraiser’s Perspective

Executive Summary Operating leases of commercial aircraft make up approximately 40% of the world’s fleet. The need for Lease-Encumbered Valuations is increasing as more and more aircraft are sold or financed with leases attached. Because a Lease-Encumbered Value (“LEV”) opinion requires access to lease contract details, providing this type of value opinion will only be […]