Narrowbody Aircraft Fleet Development in Europe

• Aircraft fleet development for European domiciled airlines has been in the midst of a definitive aircraft size migration which in part is driving similar worldwide trends
• Aircraft between 136-175 seats such as the A320 and the 737-800 has grown consistently and appears unconstrained
• Year over year fleet growth for 136-175 seat types has averaged 9% per year over the last 20-years
• This growth has come at the expense of smaller narrowbody aircraft like DC9s/MD80s, 737-300/400s/700s, A318/A319 and others
• Larger NB aircraft like the A321 has grown consistently as well at 6% per year
• Some reasons for this change in Europe:
  • low cost airlines like larger aircraft to drive down seat unit costs and low cost airlines are driving passenger traffic growth in Europe
    
  • cost of fuel which, while now lower than the past, has been very volatile; larger aircraft are a hedge against rising fuel costs
• Future orders suggest a continuation of these trends: NBs between 136-200 seats now have about 1,400 orders in Europe; 100-135 seat aircraft have about 80 orders