End of the Party There are two independent elements to forecasting: getting the prediction right and determining the time when the prediction will materialize. These two elements are quite different. For instance, we all know that we will die someday, but having an indication as to the exact timing could be very significant. Getting the […]
Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, believes Boeing’s New Mid-Market Aircraft will go ahead despite good reasons for the programme to be shelved. Click here to download the PDF version of Boeing’s New Mid-Market Aircraft will go ahead despite good reasons for the programme to be shelved The biggest decision facing aircraft manufacturers is the […]
Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, explains why it is easier to predict long-term growth in the Asian market than passenger growth at St Louis Lambert airport. Click here to download the PDF version of Are we more accurate in predicting short or long-term future? A puzzling question is the relationship of the time horizon […]
In the second part of two columns, Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, argues that it will only be a matter of time before passengers are paying more to travel by supersonic aircraft. Click here to download the PDF version of Speed and the question of first-class travel In last month’s column, I wrote about […]
In the first part of two articles, Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, Inc., explains why airlines’ quest for speed will come back as a major technological drive in the years to come. Click here to download the PDF version of Speed, the final frontier and implications for the industry Humans have dreamt forever of being […]
Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, looks forward to 16 October to show that his long-term – or is it short-term? – forecast was correct. Mystery of my oil price forecast – Download the PDF version here The date 16 October 2018 is approaching and I get a lot of messages reminding me of a […]
Events such as 9/11 and a potential US-Russia war should not negatively impact aviation in the long term, because it is an industry built on longer-term trends and relationships, writes Adam Pilarksi, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS. The world is on edge right now. There is the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East focused […]
It is a good time to be in the airplane business. Backlogs are at historical highs and airlines are making record profits. CEOs such as Boeing’s Dennis Muilenburg and American Airlines’ Doug Parker say we are no longer in a cyclical industry. Boeing’s share price more than doubled last year, and the super-long waiting periods for new […]
The Airbus A380 relied too much on a single customer, which was likely paying below average price for the aircraft, according to Adam Pilarski, senior vice-president at AVITAS. Download the PDF Version – How come king of the skies appears to be on life support? The Boeing flagship 747 was often called the “queen of […]
With a downturn on the horizon, a surfeit of new market players that have not been through one before is disconcerting, writes Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS Download the PDF Version – The underappreciated value of experience and its relevance today December 26 was the anniversary of Chairman Mao’s birth. The Chinese government is […]