Where are We in the Cycle? 10- Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury The business cycle is difficult to predict as there are many moving parts But, a pretty good indicator is available by monitoring 10-year treasury yields minus 2-year treasuries This difference has predicted at least five recessions over the last 40 years When 10-year […]
Turboprop Migration While passenger turboprop aircraft fleets are smaller when compared to jet aircraft, there are still many in service Asia/Pacific region accounts for most followed by North America and Europe But, a migration is underway; the Asia/Pacific region has about 30% of the in-service passenger turboprops in service but near 70% of the total […]
In the first part of two articles, Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, Inc., explains why airlines’ quest for speed will come back as a major technological drive in the years to come. Click here to download the PDF version of Speed, the final frontier and implications for the industry Humans have dreamt forever of being […]
Jet Aircraft Deliveries for China and Rest of World by Month Commercial jet aircraft deliveries to China continue to expand Over the last 12 months, deliveries to China alone have accounted for almost a third of all worldwide deliveries
While Europe and North America have large aircraft jet fleets, the Asia/Pacific region has now surpassed them and will continue to expand that advantage given its firm orders
Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS, looks forward to 16 October to show that his long-term – or is it short-term? – forecast was correct. Mystery of my oil price forecast – Download the PDF version here The date 16 October 2018 is approaching and I get a lot of messages reminding me of a […]
Boeing formerly dominated the MoM sector with 757s and 767s; in 1998 Boeing had 75% of this market Today, Airbus now has a 60% to 40% advantage over Boeing thanks to A321/A330-200,300s Since 2010, Airbus has grown its MoM aircraft from 1,400 in-service airplanes to about 2,900 while Boeing went from 1,550 to 2,000 Airbus […]
Interest Rates and Lease Rentals per month correlate strongly against one another and are positive in orientation (as interest rates increase, lease rentals also increase) Using A320-200 new build aircraft (years 1998 to 2017), adjusted monthly lease rates using CPI; thus adjustment is in 2017 US dollars Overlaid lease rates with one-year Libor rates […]
Events such as 9/11 and a potential US-Russia war should not negatively impact aviation in the long term, because it is an industry built on longer-term trends and relationships, writes Adam Pilarksi, Senior Vice-President at AVITAS. The world is on edge right now. There is the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East focused […]
It is a good time to be in the airplane business. Backlogs are at historical highs and airlines are making record profits. CEOs such as Boeing’s Dennis Muilenburg and American Airlines’ Doug Parker say we are no longer in a cyclical industry. Boeing’s share price more than doubled last year, and the super-long waiting periods for new […]