AVITAS - The Leading Advisor to the Aviation Industry

Methodology

At AVITAS, we undertake formal periodic value reviews of the approximately ten dozen aircraft types that we regularly track as well as value updates as market events and movements require. The primary value opinions we develop are Market Value, Base Value and Future Base Value. An aircraft's Market Value is the price at which you could sell the aircraft under the market conditions prevailing at the time in question and its Base Value is the theoretical value of the aircraft assuming a balanced market in terms of supply and demand. In reaching our value opinions, we use data on actual market transactions, various analytical techniques, a proprietary forecasting model and our own extensive industry experience. While Market Value and Base Value embody different value concepts, we are continually cross checking their relationships to determine if our value opinions are reasonable given existing market conditions.

Our broad aviation industry backgrounds are critically important; they add a diversity of viewpoints and a high degree of realism to our value opinions. Our backgrounds include: aircraft design, performance analysis, traffic and yield forecasting, fleet forecasting, aircraft finance, the negotiation of aircraft loans, finance leases and operating leases, problem deal workouts, repossessions, aircraft sales, jetliner manufacturing, maintenance and overhaul activities, econometric modeling and forecasting, market research, and database development.

Market Value In determining Current Market Values, we use a blend of techniques and tools. First, through various services and our extensive personal contacts, we collect as much actual transaction data as possible on aircraft sales, leases, financings and scrappings. Our published values assume airframes, engines and landing gear to be halfway through their various overhaul and/or life cycles. Because sales of half-life aircraft rarely occur, and because sales can include spare engines, parts, attached lease streams, tax considerations and other factors, judgment and experience are important in adjusting actual transaction data to represent clean, half-life Market Values. In addition, because over the last several years there have been a large number of aircraft leases, our experience and knowledge of the market is used to make value inferences from lease rentals and terms.

As a supplement to transaction data, and in some cases in the absence of actual market activity, we also use other methods to assist in framing Market Value opinions. We use several analytical tools because we do not believe that there is any one technique which always results in the "right" number. Through our statistical analysis of historical transactions, we have developed a quantitative modeling technique that allows us to predict the magnitude of the effects of the economy and traffic on aircraft values. Two variables of special relevance are traffic growth and aircraft surplus. By preparing forecasts for these two variables, we can assess their likely impact on Market Values.

Other tools may assist us in our analysis as well. Replacement cost analysis can simply be the cost of a new airplane of the same model or it can be used where it is possible to reproduce an aircraft. It is often helpful in framing the upper limit of an aircraft's value, particularly for modified or upgraded aircraft. Examples would be a passenger aircraft such as the 747‑100 which can be converted into freighter configuration or a Stage 2 airplane which can be hushkitted to Stage 3 compliance. Value in use or income analysis is another technique in which an aircraft's earning capacity over time is determined and the present value of those earnings is calculated. Because different operators have different costs, yields and hurdle rates of return, this technique can yield a range of values. Therefore, the appraiser must use his judgment to determine what value in that range represents a Market Value representative of the overall marketplace. Another powerful tool which we use is should-cost analysis, which is a blend of replacement cost and value in use analysis. This technique is used when there is little or no market data on a particular airplane type but there is on similar or competing types. By analyzing the economic and operational profiles of competing aircraft, the appraiser is able to impute what the aircraft in question should cost to position it competitively.

Once we have formulated our own internal Market Value opinions, we present them to a small, select group of outside aviation experts - individuals in the fields of aircraft manufacturing, sales, remarketing, financing and forecasting who we know well and regard very highly - for their review and frank comments. We consider this "reality check," which often results in further value refinements, to be a critical part of our value process in that it helps us combat "ivory tower syndrome."

Base Value The determination of Base Value, an aircraft's balanced market, long term value, is a highly subjective matter, one in which even the most skilled appraisers may have widely divergent views. We use three main tools in developing Base Values. First, we use our own research, judgment and perceptions of each aircraft type's long term competitive strengths and weaknesses vis-a-vis both competing aircraft types and the marketplace as a whole. Second, we utilize a transaction-based computer forecasting model developed by AVITAS and refined over the years. Based on thousands of actual market transactions, the model sets forth a series of value curves which describe the value behaviors of aircraft under different circumstances. Third, we do a final reality check by comparing our opinion of an aircraft's Base Value to our opinion of its Current Market Value and current marketplace conditions.

We analyze each aircraft model to determine its historic, current and projected competitive position with respect to similar aircraft types in terms of mission capability (i.e., what are the aircraft's capabilities and to what extent does the market require those capabilities), economic profile and market penetration. As a result of weighing those factors, we assign a numerical "strength" to each aircraft for each year of its economic life, where Strength 10 represents the strongest value performance and Strength 1 the weakest. The model then takes those strength factors and translates them into the aircraft's Base and Future Base Values based on its actual replacement cost (or theoretical replacement cost if it is no longer in production). After Base Values have been calculated, we compare them to our Current Market Value opinions as a calibration check of the computer model. In the infrequent case where the marketplace for that aircraft is in balance, Base Value and Current Market Value should be the same. In most cases, though, we must subjectively compare Base Value with Current Market Value to see if we believe the relationship is reasonable. This may highlight where Base Value inputs require further refinements. Because of the dynamics of the aircraft marketplace and our continuing recalibration, Base Value opinions are not static.